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No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jun 7, 2024 06:22AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
May 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025
88%
(0%)
No
May 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 7, 2024 06:22AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
May 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
May 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This number of casualties would be a large outlier and Russia would need to step up the intensity and change their targeting of infrastructure
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is possible a large attack hits a population centre
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+95%)
Yes
0%
(-95%)
No
news update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
A number of groups have interest in the aid package not being granted to Ukraine for one reason or another
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(+5%)
Yes
30%
(-5%)
No
Small increase in yes percent
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files