Supporting factors - signed deal and expanding military collaboration.
-0.000048
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
55%
Su-35 fighter jets
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+1%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Probability of dying within 1 year at age 71 (2.49%) x rate of office changes within 1 year after elections over past 100 years in Russia (3%) - 0.075% ~1%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Factors like political instability, assassination attempts, coup d'état attempts
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
Files
Why do you think you're right?
123
Why might you be wrong?
123