dkrivov1

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Active Forecaster

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Why do you think you're right?

123

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Why might you be wrong?

123

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New Prediction
dkrivov1
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
40%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
55%
Su-35 fighter jets

Supporting factors - signed deal and expanding military collaboration.


Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Probability of dying within 1 year at age 71 (2.49%) x rate of office changes within 1 year after elections over past 100 years in Russia (3%) - 0.075% ~1%.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Factors like political instability, assassination attempts, coup d'état attempts

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dkrivov1
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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dkrivov1
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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Making my first forecast!
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