alexaname

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Relative Brier Score
136000
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0

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
alexaname
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 29, 2024 03:32PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Nov 29, 2024 to May 29, 2025
40%
No
Nov 29, 2024 to May 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Es podible que el global protest tracker registre una manifestacion de tal magnitud debiso a datos especificos

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Why might you be wrong?

Puese que este equivocada porque no tenemos suficiente infprmacon para decir lo establefido

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alexaname
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
alexaname
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2024 05:23PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
50%
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025

It depends on multiple factors:

Escalation of tensions:Increased attacks or provocations.

Internal situations: political dynamics between this two can influence on the decision of a war.

Regional context and military readiness could also influence on this because of other countries like US or Arab countries that could affect this outcome.

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My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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alexaname
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
alexaname
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
40%
Togo
70%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations

Fue to recent activity in the region Africa has a higher chance. The Wagner group has a history of deploying forces in countries with unstable political situations. Wagner may target other nations with rising inestability or strategic resources.

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