loretotemoltzin

Loreto Temoltzin Barranco
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138000
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Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 10 questions!
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Even though there were a few discoveries during this time frame, it did not reach ‘five’. On the other hand, these discoveries made throughout this period will most definitely enhance our chances to identify and obtain new advances of potentially exoplanets. 

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Why might you be wrong?

I most definitely think that I might not be wrong on this one, as the time frame is coming to an end and I’d dare to say that the possibilities of this happening have been reduced to zero.

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New Prediction
loretotemoltzin
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
7%
Estonia
5%
Latvia
8%
Lithuania

The Russian military has been weakened by the war with Ukraine, the three mentioned countries are members of the NATO, so Russia will not invade these countries before april 1, 2027.

It’s important to consider the fact that invading those countries would cost Russia a fortune, it’d also cost lots of soldiers lives, which they do not currently have, and most likely are not willing to sacrifice, specially when Russia has other geopolitical tensions around the world to attend.

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New Prediction

Vladimir Putin was re-elected on march 2024, for a new six year presidential term

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New Prediction
loretotemoltzin
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
12%
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
15%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo

It’s uncertain what may happen over the next year, but following the most recent events and the U.S military dominance around Guyana and the near areas, Venezuela is most likely to unfold violent acts, such as a direct ground invasion of the land.


Nevertheless, that does not mean that Venezuela will go back on its steps to stop the claim on Essequibo.

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New Prediction
loretotemoltzin
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 49
29%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
65%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
6%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 80

Even though Russia was considered the seventh greatest concerns for germans in 2024, it will completely depend on Russia’s escalation or de-escalation of its military and cyber attacks towards NATO members. 

Also, it’s important to consider that since the on going war between Russia and Ukraine started, and Germany publicly declared in favor of Ukraine, that the country had to start lessening its reliance on Russia’s energy and economy; but as mentioned in the beginning, it’s mostly dependent on Russia’s actions.

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New Prediction
loretotemoltzin
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 05:47AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70% (0%)
Yes
Nov 28, 2024 to May 28, 2026
30% (0%)
No
Nov 28, 2024 to May 28, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
New Prediction
loretotemoltzin
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
11% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
16% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
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