Forecasted Questions
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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2024 05:45AM
(4 months ago)
Nov 28, 2024 05:45AM
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | 5% | +8% | +1% |
| No | 87% | 95% | -8% | -1% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2024 05:56AM
(4 months ago)
Nov 28, 2024 05:56AM
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 29% | 5% | +24% | -6% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 65% | 33% | +32% | -18% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 6% | 54% | -48% | +18% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 0% | 9% | -9% | +7% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2024 06:05AM
(4 months ago)
Nov 28, 2024 06:05AM
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 12% | 1% | +11% | -2% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 15% | 2% | +13% | -3% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2024 06:23AM
(4 months ago)
Nov 28, 2024 06:23AM
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2024 06:30AM
(4 months ago)
Nov 28, 2024 06:30AM
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 7% | 3% | +4% | +1% |
| Latvia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +1% |
| Lithuania | 8% | 3% | +5% | +1% |