Forecasted Questions
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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2025 03:42AM
(1 month ago)
Feb 25, 2025 03:42AM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | Feb 25, 2025 to Aug 25, 2026 | May 25, 2025 03:42AM | 10% | +80% | +2% |
| No | 10% | Feb 25, 2025 to Aug 25, 2026 | May 25, 2025 03:42AM | 90% | -80% | -2% |
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 23, 2025 03:58PM
(13 days ago)
Mar 23, 2025 03:58PM
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 74% | 27% | +47% | -10% |
| No | 26% | 73% | -47% | +10% |