I think Russia is getting more powerful and more dangerous, and are willing to use whatever technological means they have access to achieve their goals. With Trump's complacency, I also believe they are willing to take more risks with large-scale kinetic attacks like cyber attacks.
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Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
Yes
Feb 25, 2025 to Aug 25, 2026
10%
No
Feb 25, 2025 to Aug 25, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Because Trump is more favorable to Russia, Putin may not be desperate enough to deploy kinetic cyber attacks. Also, similar to Mutually Assured Destruction, a kinetic cyber attack may enable other countries to do the same.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Chemical
12%
Biological
2%
Radiological
47%
Nuclear
Why do you think you're right?
WMD's have often been used in battle in the past, and will likely be continue to be employed by irrational actors
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Mutually assured destruction
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 27, 2024 04:51AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
Yes
Nov 27, 2024 to Nov 27, 2025
25%
No
Nov 27, 2024 to Nov 27, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Chinese LLMs are getting vastly more efficienct and building off open-source data from U.S. companies in the process. Given the Chinese government's priority to improve strategic competition with the US for tech and AI (in EVs and batteries as well), this will absolutely happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
U.S. companies (and French) currently lead the market and continue to improve.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 19, 2024 03:43PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
Yes
Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025
75%
No
Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025
Even if they do continue to fight Hezbollah, I don't think a war will be officially declared (it will be considered a defensive effort)
Files
Hi Abigail, it appears the official declaration of "war" is not the only type of resolution. The more details section states
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Israel declares war on Hezbollah or makes an equivalent statement (e.g., announcing the opening of a new front against Hezbollah or officially authorizing “significant military steps”Files
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Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Tump