maybe?
-0.046472
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
5
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 21, 2025 08:37PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
72%
Yes
Feb 21, 2025 to Aug 21, 2025
28%
No
Feb 21, 2025 to Aug 21, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
maybe not?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
81%
Yes
19%
No
Why do you think you're right?
it is possible
Files
Why might you be wrong?
maybe not
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
86%
Chemical
68%
Biological
51%
Radiological
26%
Nuclear
Why do you think you're right?
Countries are already using chemical weapons in warfare like Russia in Ukraine. With the melting ice in the Arctic and pathogeons being unearthed, Russia and other countries could develop new bio-weapons and use them. I don't think any big nuclear weapons would be used.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could be a lesser nuclear weapon used.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 17, 2025 10:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
63%
Yes
Jan 17, 2025 to Jan 17, 2026
37%
No
Jan 17, 2025 to Jan 17, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
With tik tok going out, China might see LLMs as a way to gather data from countries around the world.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Like TikTok, the US might ban a Chinese LLM for security reasons.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Cease fire talks happening now
Why might you be wrong?
troubles during talks - Ukraine may not agree