Elaine

Despite consistent diplomatic visits and negotiations, investing funding and construction resources into building a military base seems too much of stretch, particularly during considerable economic decline.

While I think that the PLAN is definitely looking to increase militarization and sovereignty in the South China Sea, I doubt it will happen before January 1, 2025 seeing as they have been pre-occupied with recent internet security leaks and increasing concerns over Chinese economic conditions decreasing the state's legitimacy. I see Xi prioritizing domestic economic stimulus ahead of militarization for the time being.

Considering the fickle nature of the Middle East right now, and noting Iran's critical position in the conflict, I think it's highly unlikely Khamenei will give up his role as Supreme Leader anytime soon. Especially considering his vow of revenge against Israel after their strikes in Lebanon,  I find it unlikely he will be leaving that commander-in-chief position if he can help it.