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Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
1
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Africa,
East Asia Security
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2025
90%
(0%)
No
Nov 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
29%
Yes
71%
No
While I think that the PLAN is definitely looking to increase militarization and sovereignty in the South China Sea, I doubt it will happen before January 1, 2025 seeing as they have been pre-occupied with recent internet security leaks and increasing concerns over Chinese economic conditions decreasing the state's legitimacy. I see Xi prioritizing domestic economic stimulus ahead of militarization for the time being.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
90%
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Considering the fickle nature of the Middle East right now, and noting Iran's critical position in the conflict, I think it's highly unlikely Khamenei will give up his role as Supreme Leader anytime soon. Especially considering his vow of revenge against Israel after their strikes in Lebanon, I find it unlikely he will be leaving that commander-in-chief position if he can help it.
Files
Despite consistent diplomatic visits and negotiations, investing funding and construction resources into building a military base seems too much of stretch, particularly during considerable economic decline.