ideatician

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I'm a versatile intellectual. I procrastinate a lot currently. I'm something of a philosopher. Peaked in high school academically. Want to write a few books, go into politics.

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Forecasted Questions
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By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 24, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 6% 5%
No 94% 95%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 10:16AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 10:29AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025 Dec 26, 2024 13%
No 90% Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025 Dec 26, 2024 87%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 11:15AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 42% 25%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 56% 41%
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