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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
12
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 25 | 12 | 25 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Togo
19%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 28, 2025 07:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
87%
(0%)
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updated from 2% since time has elapsed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's still time.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 28, 2025 07:16PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
People are coming to the realization that AI is difficult to monetize.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The hype train picks back up.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(-31%)
Togo
19%
(-37%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?
Updating my prediction. Using North Korean manpower indicates that Russia doesn't have much to spare.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there's good money opportunity, they could still go for it.
Files