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Predicting the duration of a ceasefire or peace agreement in such a complex conflict is notoriously uncertain. The question, as currently framed by forecasting initiatives like the RAND Forecasting Initiative, is designed to capture that uncertainty rather than deliver a definitive answer. Essentially, if a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement were to go into effect in 2025, its duration would be measured by the number of continuous days it holds before any of several trigger events occur—such as an official withdrawal by either side or a resumption of major military operations.

Several factors will play pivotal roles:

1. **Political Will and Commitment:** Both governments face internal and external pressures. A genuine commitment to peace might lead to a more durable ceasefire, while internal political turbulence (or leadership changes) could catalyze its collapse.

2. **Mechanisms for Enforcement and Verification:** Strong international monitoring, clearly defined rules of engagement, and third-party guarantees can help sustain the ceasefire. Without robust verification and enforcement, even minor breaches could quickly snowball into renewed conflict.

3. **Underlying Issues:** The long-term success of any ceasefire depends on addressing the core disputes—territorial claims, security guarantees, resource control, and more. If these concerns remain unaddressed, the agreement may be inherently fragile and prone to early breakdown.

4. **External Influences:** The positions of external powers (and negotiations involving figures from influential countries) can either bolster or undermine the durability of a ceasefire. If the international community is actively engaged in sustaining the peace process, the agreement might hold longer.

Some discussions and forecasts have floated scenarios where an initial ceasefire might be arranged for, say, 30 days—a short-term de-escalation period intended to open the door for broader negotiations. However, many forecasters, taking into account historical precedents and the current geopolitical calculus, tend to view the duration as potentially ranging from several weeks to a few months unless the underlying political issues are comprehensively resolved. In some models, a duration of maybe two to six months of stable, continuous adherence has been suggested as a median outcome, though this estimate comes with wide confidence intervals given the volatile nature of the situation.

Ultimately, while specialists in geopolitical forecasting might assign probabilities to various outcomes, there’s no consensus yet—and much depends on rapidly evolving conditions. In short, if a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement takes effect in 2025, many experts believe it is more likely to last on the order of a few months rather than a prolonged, enduring peace, unless it is coupled with significant, transformative political agreements.

This perspective invites further reflection on what specific conditions might shift the odds toward a longer, more stable peace. For instance, understanding the role of international mediation, the impact of domestic political reforms on both sides, or historical parallels in similar conflicts can provide additional insights into what might sustain a ceasefire over the long term. What particular aspects of the ceasefire or agreement are you most curious about?