Confirmed previous forecast
0.148787
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
105
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 15 | 31 | 278 | 105 | 278 |
| Comments | 2 | 8 | 117 | 26 | 117 |
| Questions Forecasted | 15 | 28 | 61 | 39 | 61 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 15 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2026
90%
(0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
88%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
6%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files