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Captbullett

Brian Helip
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26

Forecasts

5

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Forecasts 26 26 26 26 26
Comments 26 26 26 26 26
Questions Forecasted 23 23 23 23 23
Upvotes on Comments By This User 5 5 5 5 5
 Definitions


New Prediction
Captbullett
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95% (+85%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
5% (-85%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

I had the information with the two questions reversed as this question states in the next 12 months and can also resolve yes in the 6 month question.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

I misunderstood the question or does not resolve in the time frame of the question.

Files
New Prediction
Captbullett
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?

Good day,

1) "China, India, and Thailand perceive Myanmar's instability as a potential threat."

2) " Rather, the specter of economic instability looms ominously over the regime's internal unity, potentially compelling the military to contemplate an election as a potential exit strategy."

3) "In the face of these evolving challenges, it is imperative for the international community to maintain a push toward an inclusive peace process integrating EAOs, NUG, NLD, and other key stakeholders, irrespective of potential electoral events. Considering the conflict’s potential to linger for years, international assistance will be crucial to strengthen civilian protection in conflict-affected areas."

https://www.csis.org/analysis/myanmars-precipice-stalemate-and-internal-strife-compelling-military-toward-election

1) "However, the NDSC allowed the military government to extend emergency rule for another six months in February, saying the country remained in an abnormal situation. The announcement on Monday is the fourth extension.

2) The state of emergency allows the military to assume all government functions, giving the head of the ruling military council, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, legislative, judicial and executive powers."

https://apnews.com/article/myanmar-military-state-of-emergency-extend-c860a06985f42265088b53c0ea80029e

The listed facts make me believe that the military will hold election for a way out of conflict since, China, India, and Thailand view the instability as a threat they might push the military to hold elections but not within the time frame of the question.


Files
Why might you be wrong?

Good day,

Bad data on this issue or the question resolves in the time frame of the question and elections are Heald sooner than later.

Files
New Prediction
Captbullett
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
81%
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025
19%
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Good day,

Escalating tensions with Israel and the killing of the Hezbollah leader -Hassan Nasrallah this week on Saturday, will cause Iran to have a hand in the escalating of war between Israel and Lebanon based Hezbollah as Iran proxies.  If this happens in the time frame of the question is my only question of if but when this happens.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Iran thinks twice as Israel has hit and hit hard against Hezbollah

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

No, they do not want this since the Chinese government could not add their spyware to the O-RAN protocol.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Bad data or I did not understand the data.

Files
New Prediction
Captbullett
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
88%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
6%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?

Good day,

I do not think that the companies that govern the carrier companies want universal equipment example Verizon just put in 5G poles in my neighborhood I do not think they want T-Mobile able to use their 5-G instillation to give the T-Mobile customer better service than Verizon customer's

The O-RAN situation significantly affects the telecom industry, and I do not think they want the completive edge taken away by the O-RAN standard.

"However, there has been some challenges and controversies, such as Nokia's decision to pause its technical activities with O-RAN Alliance due to compliance-related concerns involving some members being added to the US government's entity list."

-Copilot output 

I had to makes sure I did understand the information and use AI Copilot to test my understanding, and this is what I was told.

"Yes, your understanding is correct. Generally, companies like Verizon and T-Mobile prefer to maintain control over their own 5G infrastructure to ensure they can provide the best service to their own customers. Sharing infrastructure could potentially lead to competitive disadvantages, such as T-Mobile customers benefiting from Verizon's 5G installations¹²."

If you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask!

Source: Conversation with Copilot, 9/29/2024

(1) 5G bands cheat sheet: Verizon vs AT&T vs Sprint vs T-Mobile vs World. https://www.phonearena.com/news/5G-bands-explained-Verizon-vs-AT-T-vs-Sprint-vs-T-Mobile-vs-World_id116781.

(2) Verizon vs. AT&T vs. T-Mobile compared: How to pick the best 5G carrier .... https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/verizon-vs-at-t-vs-t-mobile-compared-how-to-pick-the-best-5g-carrier-for-you/.

(3) Verizon vs T-Mobile vs AT&T: here's how the three 5G ... - PhoneArena. https://www.phonearena.com/news/verizon-vs-t-mobile-vs-att-5g-speed-tests-availability-comparison-new_id128736.

(4) Verizon moves one step closer to a major 5G breakthrough, but T-Mobile .... https://www.phonearena.com/news/verizon-5g-standalone-network-launch-t-mobile-att-dish-plans_id125902.

(5) Verizon relies on dynamic spectrum sharing more widely than AT&T .... https://www.fierce-network.com/operators/verizon-relies-dynamic-spectrum-sharing-more-widely-than-at-t-report.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Bad data or I did not understand the information on the O-RAN technology.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

This will not happen in the time frame of the question.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Bad data.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Good day,

I do not see this happening because it would force China to conform to the West standards and would not allow them (China) to imbed their spyware. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

China has a change of heart in their thinking.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Good day,

I do not think MS will move as it wants China's business yet, if China increases the conflict with Tiwan there might be movement in MS decision making.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

The Tiwan conflict increases and changes to outcome of the question or the issue does not resolve in the time frame of the question. 

Files
New Prediction
Captbullett
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
6%
Moldova
3%
Armenia
3%
Georgia
3%
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?

Good day,

With Ukraine crossing into Russia and taking the conflict to Russian motherland I do not see Russia involving itself with a two front conflict also with Ukraine hitting ammunition supply's it is even more unlikely that Russia invades another country at this time as any country listed could join Ukraine in their defensive posture against Russia.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Bad data or China joins in the fight in Ukraine.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Good day,

I have had this question asked by GJO and I still think that the only way he loses power in Russia is if he falls ill. Other than that Wagner tried a coup and we saw where that went.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Ukraine hit the kremlin with a long-range rocket or drone and Putin loses his life in the attack. 

Files
Files
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