Iran's historical preference for proxy warfare, combined with the weakening of its proxy network and loss of influence in Syria, reduces its capacity for direct conflict. Economic pressures, internal unrest, and a focus on domestic stability further discourage military escalation.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
94%
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Potential Israeli or U.S. strikes on Iran, coupled with Trump's return to power, Iran's possible NPT withdrawal, and accidental escalations in the Persian Gulf, could significantly heighten tensions and lead to larger conflict.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026
92%
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Russia has a history of cyber attacks against NATO countries (e.g., Ukraine, the U.S.) and critical infrastructure.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A cyber attack causing physical damage or casualties could trigger massive retaliation from NATO countries, escalating the conflict into full-blown war, which Russia likely wants to avoid.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Why do you think you're right?
China has been expanding its influence in Africa, primarily through infrastructure investments and strategic partnerships. A military base would align with this growing geopolitical footprint.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Host countries may be hesitant to allow China to establish a base due to international pressure or regional security concern
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
Yes
59%
No
The period until 2030 provides sufficient time for research, development, testing, and scaling of EUV machines and China has achieved similar strides in the past.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The certification process is intricate and time-intensive, potentially causing delays in issuance.
Why might you be wrong?
The presence of multiple OTICs in North America enhances the likelihood of certification.