Forecasted Questions
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2024 10:30PM
(3 months ago)
Dec 30, 2024 10:30PM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 37% | -2% | +3% |
| No | 65% | 63% | +2% | -3% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 03:55PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 31, 2025 03:55PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026 | Apr 30, 2025 03:55PM | 9% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 92% | Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026 | Apr 30, 2025 03:55PM | 91% | +1% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 07:25PM
(1 month ago)
Feb 28, 2025 07:25PM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | Feb 28, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026 | May 28, 2025 07:25PM | 7% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 94% | Feb 28, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026 | May 28, 2025 07:25PM | 93% | +1% | -1% |