Cyberattacks with direct kinetic effects have been rare, and NATO's enhanced cyber defenses, along with the risk of escalation and a NATO Article 5 response, deter Russia from pursuing such attacks.
0.028752
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2026
94%
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia's history of cyber operations against NATO, including attacks like NotPetya and the 2022 Viasat hack, combined with vulnerabilities in critical sectors and advanced cyber groups like Sandworm, increases the likelihood of destructive cyberattacks as the war in Ukraine continues.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 03:56PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
99%
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
China's military resources are stretched, and there is no immediate strategic or political reason that justifies a major military action against Taiwan in the next six months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In the context of growing tensions, a miscalculation or a shift in leadership priorities in China could lead to a more aggressive stance towards Taiwan than anticipated.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2025 10:32PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Dec 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2025
80%
No
Dec 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Current top models like GPT and Claude from the U.S. remain highly dominant, and catching up in 12 months is extremely challenging.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China's tech giants are motivated to compete with U.S. and European AI models, making it possible for a top-ranked Chinese LLM to emerge
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
The government offers financial incentives to companies working on critical technologies like EUV lithography and the subsidies fastrack the process.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Putin seems determined to achieve his maximalist goals, such as territorial expansion and preventing Ukraine's NATO membership.
Why might you be wrong?
The Trump administration is actively advocating for a ceasefire and may use economic pressure on both parties to help broker an agreement.