Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 20 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
77%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026
23%
(0%)
No
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 27, 2025 01:05AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
71%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
29%
(0%)
No
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
56%
(+51%)
Yes
44%
(-51%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
If China successfully negotiates with a receptive African country and overcomes diplomatic pushback, a base could be under construction by early 2027.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If China prioritizes "dual-use" civilian ports instead of overt military bases, or if major geopolitical tensions discourage expansion.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Angola
27%
Kenya
27%
Ethiopia
27%
Nigeria
Why do you think you're right?
all of the countries dont have as much political instability compared to the very low credit rating countries in Africa, and as long as foreign investment still exist without IMF intervention, balance of payment problem should be quite low
Files
Why might you be wrong?
if there is a military coup or global recession, these countries might be affected and will drop their credit rating from mediocre to poor and face default issues
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(0%)
Yes
72%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
77%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 16, 2025 to Jul 16, 2026
23%
(0%)
No
Jan 16, 2025 to Jul 16, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
no major political changes
Why might you be wrong?