Forecasted Questions
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 16, 2025 01:16AM
(3 months ago)
Jan 16, 2025 01:16AM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | 5% | +23% | -1% |
| No | 72% | 95% | -23% | +1% |
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 16, 2025 01:29AM
(3 months ago)
Jan 16, 2025 01:29AM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | 30% | 5% | +25% | +0% |
| Kenya | 27% | 4% | +23% | -1% |
| Ethiopia | 27% | 22% | +5% | -5% |
| Nigeria | 27% | 3% | +24% | -1% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 01:05AM
(2 months ago)
Feb 27, 2025 01:05AM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 77% | Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026 | May 27, 2025 01:05AM | 10% | +67% | +3% |
| No | 23% | Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026 | May 27, 2025 01:05AM | 90% | -67% | -3% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 17, 2025 12:22AM
(1 month ago)
Mar 17, 2025 12:22AM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56% | 37% | +19% | -2% |
| No | 44% | 63% | -19% | +2% |