Status quo seems to work for China.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(-10%)
Yes
55%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China might determine that their interests in Africa necessitate an expansion of military presence there.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
22%
Yes
Feb 6, 2025 to Feb 6, 2026
78%
No
Feb 6, 2025 to Feb 6, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Very unlikely unless provoked
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Rising tensions in Middle East could inflame tensions.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 16, 2025 01:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(-6%)
Yes
Jan 16, 2025 to Jul 16, 2025
97%
(+6%)
No
Jan 16, 2025 to Jul 16, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
The PLA (really all of China's central planning under Xi Jinping) will wait for more signs of how the incoming U.S. Trump administration would handle such an action, and Taiwan is unlikely to make a provocative move (like a formal declaration of independence) that would incite such an incursion.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is a chance Taiwan might make such a move, or China could feel the moment is opportune to invade.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
Argentina
16%
Bolivia
23%
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
As mentioned, Argentina has defaulted multiple times. However, there is some cautious confidence that Milei will reduce the likelihood of this happening again.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Bolivia no longer has Jeffrey Franks working as its IMF expert, so a default seems more likely...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Egypt's currency devaluation earlier this year has contributed to widespread pressures on the national economy, which could spark collapse if many individuals lose faith.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The reforms could help stabilize the Egyptian economy, along with substantial inflows from foreign investors like ADX, a UAE sovereign wealth fund.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Venezuela is likely too weak to conduct a successful invasion, and the area of Essequibo is too central to Guyanese statehood.
Why might you be wrong?
Venezuela may deem it has nothing to lose.