Forecasted Questions
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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 01:32AM
(4 months ago)
Nov 12, 2024 01:32AM
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 6% | +4% | -1% |
| No | 90% | 94% | -4% | +1% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 01:31AM
(4 months ago)
Nov 19, 2024 01:31AM
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 23% | 9% | +14% | -9% |
| Bolivia | 16% | 12% | +4% | -9% |
| Ecuador | 23% | 9% | +14% | -3% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 6, 2025 12:32AM
(1 month ago)
Feb 6, 2025 12:32AM
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 22% | Feb 6, 2025 to Feb 6, 2026 | May 6, 2025 12:32AM | 7% | +15% | +2% |
| No | 78% | Feb 6, 2025 to Feb 6, 2026 | May 6, 2025 12:32AM | 93% | -15% | -2% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 01:12AM
(22 days ago)
Feb 27, 2025 01:12AM
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | 39% | +6% | +2% |
| No | 55% | 61% | -6% | -2% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 17, 2025 12:23AM
(4 days ago)
Mar 17, 2025 12:23AM
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 11% | 2% | +9% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 9% | 0% | +9% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 2% | 0% | +2% | +0% |