RAND Forecasting Initiative

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	12%	9%	+3%	+0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	32%	33%	-1%	+4%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	37%	43%	-6%	+1%
More than or equal to 90	16%	13%	+3%	-5%

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2025 02:45PM
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	Feb 17, 2025 to Feb 17, 2026	May 17, 2025 02:45PM	7%	+2%	+1%
No	91%	Feb 17, 2025 to Feb 17, 2026	May 17, 2025 02:45PM	93%	-2%	-1%

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 01:09AM
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	0%	4%	-4%	-1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	47%	37%	+10%	-5%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	53%	51%	+2%	+5%
More than or equal to 80	0%	7%	-7%	+1%

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 1, 2025 04:03PM
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	10%	-1%	-4%
No	91%	90%	+1%	+4%

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 5, 2025 03:12AM
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	23%	38%	-15%	-18%
No	77%	62%	+15%	+18%

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