| Date Ended | Question | Relative Brier Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM | In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025) | -0.028181 |
| Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM | Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? | -0.000028 |
| Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM | By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? | -0.000368 |
| Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM | Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? | -0.000004 |