Confirmed previous forecast
0.440807
Relative Brier Score
60
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 122 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 29, 2023 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2023 to Dec 29, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 6,000
45%
(0%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
32%
(0%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
16%
(0%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to 9,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Irregular transition implicates major social unrest or a military cup, which until now looks unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Social conditions can change due a wide range of drivers.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 30, 2023 11:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Apr 30, 2023 to Oct 30, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
China doesn't have any incentive in this moment to ignite an armed conflict.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
an ill-timed move is always a possibility.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 6,000
45%
(0%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
32%
(0%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
16%
(0%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to 9,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Even with the first sings of restrictions, it is possible a super hit featured by a start, that after reach the mark of 10 million reproductions revealed that the song was the creation of AI
Why might you be wrong?
A total ban on AI songs in steaming platforms