Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 22, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Mar 22, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 22% | +28% | -40% |
| No | 50% | 78% | -28% | +40% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 02:10AM UTC
(19 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 02:10AM UTC
(19 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 86% | -6% | +4% |
| No | 20% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 14% | +6% | -4% |