Tensions with Hamas remain strained. Hezbollah and Israel are already accusing one another of violating the ceasefire, which does not bode well for other parties, like Hamas, agreeing to a ceasefire. In addition, until the hostages are returned, it is unlikely that Israel would agree to a ceasefire.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/israel-hezbollah-accuse-each-other-of-violating-ceasefire/ar-AA1uVEnl
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+80%)
Yes
10%
(-80%)
No
Files
Thanks it shows now. I only saw 6th update when I did "show all forecasts" but now you are up to 8.
What's clear is that the "ceasefire" is entirely unilateral, more of an expectation of total surrender: https://www.axios.com/2024/11/28/israel-hezebollah-lebanon-ceasefire-violation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(+10%)
Yes
90%
(-10%)
No
A ceasefire has been agreed upon by Israel.
With more than a year of fighting and multiple nations involved, I still am not convinced that a ceasefire can be maintained for 30 days.
Files
Thank you. I should have left my original 0% chance.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-10%)
Yes
100%
(+10%)
No
Tensions with Hamas remain strained. Hezbollah and Israel are already accusing one another of violating the ceasefire, which does not bode well for other parties, like Hamas, agreeing to a ceasefire. In addition, until the hostages are returned, it is unlikely that Israel would agree to a ceasefire.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-80%)
Yes
90%
(+80%)
No
Tensions with Hamas remain strained. Hezbollah and Israel are already accusing one another of violating the ceasefire, which does not bode well for other parties, like Hamas, agreeing to a ceasefire. In addition, until the hostages are returned, it is unlikely that Israel would agree to a ceasefire.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-50%)
Yes
100%
(+50%)
No
The fighting has not only continued but intensified. At this point, it is more likely other nations will become involved and it be a regional conflict.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2024 02:10AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
(+79%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
20%
(-79%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Israel has been steadily bombing and precision attacking Hezbollah for the past month. The bigger question is when Hezbollah will counterattack. At the point they do, Israel will most likely declare an official war.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-to-
know-about-the-israel-hezbollah-conflict
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/the-obstacles-standing-in-the-way-of-an-israel-hezbollah-cease-fire
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Significant pressure from United States and allies
"The United States and its allies, including Gulf Arab countries, have tried to offer a way out, proposing an immediate 21-day cease-fire to “provide space for diplomacy.”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/the-obstacles-standing-in-the-way-of-an-israel-hezbollah-cease-fire
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Microsoft will likely wait to decide until after the first 90 days of the incoming POTUS administration.
Why might you be wrong?
Microsoft may decide to get ahead of the decision and decide early.