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If the forecast turns out to be wrong—either an attack happens when none was anticipated, or no attack happens despite signs pointing toward one—a range of factors could contribute to the unexpected outcome. Here are several key reasons why a forecast in this scenario might miss the mark:

• Underestimation of Capabilities: Misjudging Iran’s nuclear or missile advancements might lead to either underplaying or overplaying the urgency of a preemptive strike.
• Missed Signs of Action: Covert preparations for an attack, such as troop movements, cyberattacks, or diplomatic maneuvers, might go unnoticed by external observers
• Unexpected diplomatic breakthrough like sudden diplomatic agreements. A breakthrough in negotiations, perhaps over the nuclear deal (JCPOA), could defuse the situation temporarily or lead to new accords, making an attack unnecessary or less likely.
• Mediation by Third Parties: Countries like China, Russia, or the European Union could step in with mediatory efforts, reducing tensions and the need for military escalation.
• Change in domestic politics, for example leadership shifts: A change in leadership or domestic priorities within key countries like Israel, the U.S., or Iran could alter the strategic calculus. New leadership might either push for or pull back from military action.
• Internal Unrest in Iran: Iran might face domestic instability, diverting resources and focus away from its nuclear ambitions or creating a situation in which external forces choose not to intervene, fearing unintended consequences.
• Military Calculus and Operational Constraints: Even if a strike is planned, logistical or military complications might delay or cancel it. This could involve intelligence or operational setbacks like inadequate preparation, intelligence misreads, or international exposure of the operation before execution.
• Unexpected Resistance or Consequences.: Anticipated low-risk military action might be reevaluated if the potential for retaliation by Iran or its regional allies (e.g., Hezbollah, militias in Iraq) becomes higher than expected.
• Shifts in U.S. Foreign Policy: The U.S. plays a significant role in the region. A sudden shift in U.S. policy—toward either intervention or diplomacy—could influence Israel’s or other regional players’ decisions regarding strikes. Increased U.S. restraint could prevent or delay an attack.
• Elections or Political Crises in Key States: U.S. elections or political events in other countries could shift priorities away from immediate military action.

The interplay of these factors makes geopolitical forecasting difficult. Military actions, especially preemptive strikes, depend on a web of strategic, political, and operational calculations that can shift rapidly.