jonathanmaza

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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Science & Technology, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector, INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration, Iran: Threats & Influence

Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program

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New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
jonathanmaza made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Nov 3, 2024 10:39PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
51%
Yes
Oct 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2025
49%
No
Oct 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Predicting specific attacks on Iranian nuclear or missile-related facilities is highly speculative. However, a number of factors influence the likelihood of such an event:

  • Geopolitical Tensions: Iran’s nuclear program has been a point of contention, particularly with Israel, the United States, and other Western powers. Israeli intelligence and defense officials have openly discussed the possibility of preemptive strikes to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear capabilities, especially as negotiations over the 2015 nuclear deal have stalled in recent years.
  • Covert Operations: Israel has a history of using covert means, including cyberattacks (e.g., Stuxnet) and targeted assassinations, to delay Iran's nuclear progress. There have been several incidents in recent years involving sabotage at Iranian facilities, though attribution can be difficult.
  • Regional Instability: Broader dynamics in the Middle East, such as tensions in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, could lead to escalations involving Iran and its adversaries, which might trigger an attack. For instance, if Iran’s influence in those areas becomes a greater threat, a preemptive strike on Iranian military infrastructure could occur.
  • Diplomatic Efforts: Any diplomatic progress, such as the resumption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or new sanctions, could lower or increase the chances of an attack. If diplomatic channels break down entirely, military action might become more likely.
  • Iran's Advancements: If intelligence suggests that Iran is approaching the threshold of nuclear weapons capability or significantly advancing its missile technology, preemptive military action could become a serious consideration for Israel or other regional actors like Saudi Arabia.

While an attack cannot be ruled out, the specific likelihood within the next six months depends on a dynamic and evolving set of political, military, and intelligence factors. Key developments in international relations or direct provocations will shape the near-term risk of military strikes.

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Why might you be wrong?

If the forecast turns out to be wrong—either an attack happens when none was anticipated, or no attack happens despite signs pointing toward one—a range of factors could contribute to the unexpected outcome. Here are several key reasons why a forecast in this scenario might miss the mark:

  • Underestimation of Capabilities: Misjudging Iran’s nuclear or missile advancements might lead to either underplaying or overplaying the urgency of a preemptive strike.
  • Missed Signs of Action: Covert preparations for an attack, such as troop movements, cyberattacks, or diplomatic maneuvers, might go unnoticed by external observers
  • Unexpected diplomatic breakthrough like sudden diplomatic agreements. A breakthrough in negotiations, perhaps over the nuclear deal (JCPOA), could defuse the situation temporarily or lead to new accords, making an attack unnecessary or less likely.
  • Mediation by Third Parties: Countries like China, Russia, or the European Union could step in with mediatory efforts, reducing tensions and the need for military escalation.
  • Change in domestic politics, for example leadership shifts: A change in leadership or domestic priorities within key countries like Israel, the U.S., or Iran could alter the strategic calculus. New leadership might either push for or pull back from military action.
  • Internal Unrest in Iran: Iran might face domestic instability, diverting resources and focus away from its nuclear ambitions or creating a situation in which external forces choose not to intervene, fearing unintended consequences.
  • Military Calculus and Operational Constraints: Even if a strike is planned, logistical or military complications might delay or cancel it. This could involve intelligence or operational setbacks like inadequate preparation, intelligence misreads, or international exposure of the operation before execution.
  • Unexpected Resistance or Consequences.: Anticipated low-risk military action might be reevaluated if the potential for retaliation by Iran or its regional allies (e.g., Hezbollah, militias in Iraq) becomes higher than expected.
  • Shifts in U.S. Foreign Policy: The U.S. plays a significant role in the region. A sudden shift in U.S. policy—toward either intervention or diplomacy—could influence Israel’s or other regional players’ decisions regarding strikes. Increased U.S. restraint could prevent or delay an attack.
  • Elections or Political Crises in Key States: U.S. elections or political events in other countries could shift priorities away from immediate military action.

The interplay of these factors makes geopolitical forecasting difficult. Military actions, especially preemptive strikes, depend on a web of strategic, political, and operational calculations that can shift rapidly.

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