Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?
Started
Mar 17, 2022 08:15PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports.
For the purposes of this question:
- “Events involving Russian security forces” refers to events directly and plausibly attributable to forces that fall under the command of members of the Security Council of Russia.
- “Events resulting in 25 or more fatalities” refers to one or more events totaling 25 or more fatalities by 1 April 2023.
- A list of NATO member states is provided here.
- The fatalities must occur on NATO soil or in NATO airspace or territorial waters. An airstrike or remote attack launched from outside NATO territory will count if it results in fatalities within NATO territory.
Question clarification
Issued on 03/23/22 01:40pm
If the sum total of fatalities resulting from events involving Russian Security forces across NATO states reaches 25, but no individual country reached 25 fatalities, this question will resolve as "Yes."
If the sum total of fatalities resulting from events involving Russian Security forces across NATO states reaches 25, but no individual country reached 25 fatalities, this question will resolve as "Yes."
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.79% | |
| No | 99.21% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 150 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 940 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
