Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?
Started
Oct 6, 2022 07:00PM
Closed Feb 1, 2023 05:00AM (2 years ago)
Closed Feb 1, 2023 05:00AM (2 years ago)
Concerns that Russia may use nuclear weapons have been elevated since the war in Ukraine began. Russia’s announcement of their annexation of Ukrainian territory and recent warnings that they would defend Russian territory with nuclear weapons have raised those risks even higher.
This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). Radiological devices (also known as "dirty bombs") will not be considered nuclear weapons (Mass.gov).
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.75% | |
| No | 94.25% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 183 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 506 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Scored Periods
| Scores for forecasts between | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2022 07:00PM - Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM | 8% |
| Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM - Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM | 4% |
| Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM - Feb 1, 2023 05:00AM | 6% |
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Oct 6, 2022 3:00PM EDT (118 days before close, question was 0% complete)