Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?
Closed Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Question clarification
The new Bing does not necessarily have to be accessible in every country upon release for this question to resolve "yes". For example, if Microsoft releases the new Bing to users in the United States, this question would still resolve "yes" provided that the new Bing is otherwise publicly available to users in the U.S.
If the new Bing is available to the public, but requires the use of a Microsoft account or platform to access it (e.g., Windows or Microsoft Edge), this question will resolve "yes".
While access to the new Bing has been accelerated for many, some users have reported not getting access. Additionally, Microsoft is still encouraging users to sign up for the waitlist, and says that they are “adding more people every day”. Consequently, this question will remain open. If Bing removes the waitlist requirement to access the new Bing, this question will resolve “Yes” regardless of whether or not Microsoft refers to the new Bing as as being in preview.
Although Microsoft still describes the sign-up process for the new Bing preview as a waitlist, access is immediate for nearly all who join. The INFER team interprets this to mean that the waitlist has effectively been removed, as shown by Microsoft’s decision on 19 March 2023 to change the primary call to action on bing.com/new from “Join the Waitlist” to “Sign in to chat”. While some accounts reported not receiving access to the new Bing, Microsoft has made efforts to ensure access where possible, and these reports typically appear to be caused by issues such as not having an age on their account, being banned from Microsoft rewards, or other technical bugs (e.g., a Bing VP, a software engineer on Bing's waitlist team, and a Microsoft Community agent). In addition, these reports appear to be in the strong minority and have decreased significantly in number.
The INFER team has been monitoring this situation, and while we acknowledge that there hasn't been official confirmation from Microsoft and the situation isn't clear cut, it is our judgment that the above constitutes the new Bing "being available to the public”, despite still being in preview. Forecasts made on or after 19 March 2023 will not impact your score.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 62.16% | |
No | 37.84% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 114 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 267 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 223 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |