Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022)

Started Sep 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted international condemnation, the domestic consequences for Putin are unclear (Bloomberg). The prospect of a prolonged war, mounting casualties, and devastating economic sanctions will test the depth of his support by the Russian public (CNBC, PBS). 

Outcome will be determined based on data reported by the Levada Center. Bins will be determined by the month of the approval rating. For example, if the May data (displayed as 05.2022 on the site) shows a 47% percent approval rating, the question will resolve on May 2022, even if the 05.2022 data is released in June.  

This question is a resolved time period from Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.28%
No 98.72%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 170
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000087
2.
-0.000087
3.
-0.000087
4.
-0.000087
5.
-0.000087

Consensus Trend

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