Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?
Started
Apr 18, 2023 06:00PM
Closed Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Closed Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Tags
Seasons
Widespread anti-government protests and health concerns surrounding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have led to speculation over how long he will continue as Supreme Leader of Iran (NBC News, New York Times). At the same time, his recent increase in public appearances, pardoning of arrested protestors, and efforts to restore ties with Saudi Arabia are seen by some as attempts to solidify support for his regime (Financial Times, Reuters).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports and will resolve “Yes” if Ali Khamenei ceases to be supreme leader of Iran or flees the country (regardless of whether he still claims to be Supreme Leader). Examples of events that could resolve the question include his resignation, replacement, death, or exile.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.19% | |
| No | 99.81% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 99 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 777 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Apr 18, 2023 2:00PM EDT (318 days before close, question was 0% complete)