What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
Started
May 11, 2023 07:00PM
Closed Dec 1, 2023 05:00AM (a year ago)
Closed Dec 1, 2023 05:00AM (a year ago)
Seasons
Preparations for a counteroffensive against Russia are underway in Ukraine, and experts believe that its launch is imminent (U.S. News and World Report, Business Insider). The success or failure of this spring offensive will shape the course of the war (New York Times).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using data from Brookings’ Ukraine Index. The graph “Percentage of Ukraine held by Russia” is updated monthly, and the question will resolve on the percentage reported for December 2023. Before the war began in February 2022, Russia held 7% of Ukraine (including Crimea and parts of the Donbas). In April 2023 (i.e., prior to the spring offensive), Russia held 17% of Ukraine.
Resolution Notes
Brookings reports that Russia held 18% of Ukraine in December.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ukraine-index-tracking-developments-in-the-ukraine-war/
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 7% | 0% | |
| More than or equal to 7% but less than 12% | 2% | |
| More than or equal to 12% but less than 17% | 6% | |
| More than or equal to 17% but less than 22% | 91% | |
| More than or equal to 22% | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 135 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 720 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Sep 27, 2023 5:21AM EDT (65 days before close, question was 68% complete)