By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Started
Jan 12, 2024 09:00PM
Closed Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM (4 months ago)
Closed Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM (4 months ago)
Seasons
Microsoft Research Lab Asia (MSR Asia), is the division of Microsoft Research based in China and focuses its research on artificial intelligence, computer vision, and other critical technologies. In June 2023, the Financial Times reported that Microsoft was moving some of its top AI experts from MSR Asia to a new research lab in Vancouver that would be organizationally aligned with MSR Asia (Financial Times). This followed a decision in May by Microsoft-owned LinkedIn to shut down InCareer, the stripped-down version of the LinkedIn app that remained in China after LinkedIn decided to pull out of the country in 2021 (Reuters). However, Peter Lee, the head of Microsoft Research, has denied claims that Microsoft is planning to close their lab in China saying, “There has been no discussion or advocacy to close Microsoft Research Asia, and we look forward to continuing our research agenda” (New York Times).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as "Yes" if Microsoft announces in a press release, statement by Microsoft executives, or other official communication that it is closing Microsoft Research Asia or moving the research lab to another country. The announcement must be made on or before 31 December 2024, but the closure or relocation does not need to be effected by that date. The relocation of some MSR Asia staff without the closing of offices or cessation of operations in China will not be sufficient for resolution.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 3% | |
No | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 269 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1186 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
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- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 12, 2024 4:38PM EST (353 days before close, question was 0% complete)