Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
Started
Feb 1, 2024 08:00PM
Closed Feb 13, 2024 04:59AM (a year ago)
Closed Feb 13, 2024 04:59AM (a year ago)
Tags
Seasons
On 16 January 2024, Iran conducted deadly missile strikes inside Iraq and Pakistan that they allege were targeting terrorist groups within the two countries (New York Times). Iraq and Pakistan both recalled their ambassadors to Iran in response to the strikes (AP News, VOA). However, Pakistan returned their ambassador shortly afterwards on 27 January (Iran International).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” upon news reports that Iraq has returned their ambassador to Iran. The announcement of an agreement or a plan to return their ambassador will not count towards resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Resolution Notes
Iraq returned their ambassador to Iran in February 2024, and he has since resumed his diplomatic duties.
https://www.newarab.com/news/iraq-reinstate-ambassador-iran-after-erbil-attacks
https://www.basnews.com/en/babat/839329
https://www.tabnak.ir/en/news/5067/tehran-baghdad-trade-goes-beyond-us$-10-billion-says-iraqi-envoy
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | |
| No | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 67 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 436 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Scored Periods
| Scores for forecasts between | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024 08:00PM - Feb 13, 2024 04:59AM | 4% |
| Mar 1, 2024 07:00PM - Apr 1, 2024 07:00PM | 9% |
| Apr 1, 2024 07:00PM - May 1, 2024 07:00PM | 6% |
| May 1, 2024 07:00PM - Jun 1, 2024 07:00PM | 5% |
| Jun 1, 2024 07:00PM - Jul 1, 2024 07:00PM | 2% |
| Jul 1, 2024 07:00PM - Aug 1, 2024 07:00PM | 4% |