Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
Started
Feb 01, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
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Seasons
Several major oil and gas companies have announced that they are pausing shipments through the Red Sea, including BP in December 2023 and Shell in January 2024 (Forbes, Reuters). These decisions came after Houthi militants from Yemen launched attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea (BBC). BP has stated that the decision was made in order to protect their employees and that the “precautionary pause [will be] under ongoing review, subject to circumstances as they evolve in the region,” while Shell declined to comment (NBC News).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as "Yes" if there are reports that BP or Shell has resumed shipping on or before 31 March 2024. Shipments do not need to return to the level they were at before the pause in order to count towards resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Question clarification
Issued on 02/05/24 05:09pm
A typo in the resolution criteria has been corrected. Shipping must resume on or before 31 March 2024 to count towards resolution.
A typo in the resolution criteria has been corrected. Shipping must resume on or before 31 March 2024 to count towards resolution.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 117 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 267 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
