Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
Started
Feb 27, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC
Closed Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC
A cyberattack disrupted services at around 70 percent of Iran’s fuel stations in mid-December 2023 (Al Jazeera). A group linked to Israel called Predatory Sparrow has publicly taken credit for the disruption. Israel and Iran have a long history of cyberattacks between them, resulting in tension that could be aggravated by the Israel-Palestine conflict (Politico). Predatory Sparrow previously took credit for a similar cyberattack in 2021, but the Iranian government blamed an unnamed “state actor” (BBC).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as "Yes" if before 1 March 2025, the Iranian government, Iranian state media, or other reputable sources report that Iran has been affected by cyber attack targeting critical infrastructure or if the group that makes such an attack publicly takes credit for it. The U.S. GAO identified the following sectors as critical infrastructure that could be vulnerable to cyberattacks:
- Chemical
- Commercial facilities
- Communications
- Critical manufacturing
- Dams
- Defense industrial base
- Emergency services
- Energy
- Financial services
- Food and agriculture
- Government facilities
- Healthcare and public health
- Information technology
- Nuclear reactors, materials, and waste
- Transportation systems
- Water and wastewater systems
Question clarification
Issued on 02/28/24 08:46pm
Failed cyberattacks will not count towards resolution. For Iran to be "impacted by a cyberattack", the attack itself must cause some amount of harm or negative outcome, such as an interruption in service or damage to equipment.
Failed cyberattacks will not count towards resolution. For Iran to be "impacted by a cyberattack", the attack itself must cause some amount of harm or negative outcome, such as an interruption in service or damage to equipment.
Resolution Notes
Israeli hacker group We Red Evils claimed responsibility for a cyberattack targeting Iranian internet infrastructure. Reports indicated that internet access was disrupted in parts of the country.
https://t.me/s/WeRedEvilsOG
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-813000
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2024/08/02/iranian-wifi-attack-reported-collapse-as-israeli-hackers-strike/
https://thecyberexpress.com/israeli-weredevils-internet-disruption-iran/
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 73% | |
| No | 27% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 73 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 356 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
