Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?
Started
Apr 15, 2024 04:00PM
Closed Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM (a year ago)
Closed Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM (a year ago)
Seasons
The U.S. has been preparing to send a $60 billion military aid package to Ukraine for months (Le Monde). However, the package has been stalled in the House of Representatives with some lawmakers trying to block additional funding for the war in Ukraine, and others trying to gain leverage for other concessions (AP).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives pass a bill to send military and/or financial aid worth at least $10 billion to Ukraine. To count towards resolution, both chambers must pass the same bill, but the President is not required to sign it for the question to be resolved.
Resolution Notes
On 23 April 2024, the U.S. Congress passed the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024, a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth $95 billion (AP News).
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | |
| No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 38 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 87 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Apr 18, 2024 10:59AM EDT (5 days before close, question was 38% complete)