Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)

Started Nov 01, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC

The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). While Iran has denied involvement in Hamas’ attack and stated that it does not want the war to spread, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has warned that if Israel does not halt its airstrikes, “it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened” (Reuters, CNN).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using credible, open-source news reporting that Iran has launched missiles targeting Israel or conducted an airstrike in Israel. Missiles or aircraft intercepted before reaching their target will still count toward resolution as long as credible reports (including statements by either Iran or Israel) indicate that they were targeting Israel. Attacks on Israeli forces outside of Israeli territory or airspace will not be considered. Attacks by non-state actors or militias allied with Iran will not count towards resolution.

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

This question is a resolved time period from Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 34%
No 66%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 87
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 445
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.573738
2.
-0.901513
3.
-0.377688
4.
-0.363981
5.
-0.346355

Consensus Trend

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