Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Started
Apr 22, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Seasons
On 21 March 2024, Russia launched 31 missiles at Kyiv, injuring 13 people in the city (Reuters). This attack, along with more recent strikes on critical energy infrastructure near Kyiv, has raised fears that Ukraine’s defenses are now at their most vulnerable (Bloomberg, Reuters).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Ukrainian authorities or the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) report that at least 100 people within the city limits of Kyiv were killed or wounded by a Russian attack. A spreadsheet containing a list of Russian attacks (i.e., Battles, Explosions/Remote Violence, and Violence Against Civilians by Russian Military Forces) on the city of Kyiv since the beginning of the war is available here. As of 29 March 2024, the attack with the highest number of casualties took place on 13 December 2023 with 53 people killed or injured.
Notes:
- This spreadsheet is maintained by the INFER team using data from ACLED and will be updated regularly. Learn more about how ACLED records and categorizes events here: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Codebook
- ACLED’s database may take a week or two to update after an event has occurred. If a Russian air or drone strike hits Kyiv and results in 100 or more casualties, the question will be resolved as of the date of the strike (not on the date ACLED updates the database) and forecasts made after that date will not count.
- The ACLED database records fatalities in their own column and injury counts are written in the notes section. The INFER team has added two new columns–“injured” and “casualties (fatalities+injured)”–to easily show the total number of killed and injured.
- In some instances, ACLED may split the fatality count for an attack across multiple events to record the fatalities as occurring in multiple subdivisions of the city (e.g., Kyiv - Darnytskyi, Kyiv - Desnianskyi, etc.). This is clearly noted in the “Notes” column of the spreadsheet. In these instances, the INFER team will consider this one attack and report the total number of casualties in one row. If an attack spans multiple days, ACLED will report them as separate events, but the INFER team will still consider this as one attack.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 82 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 160 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
