Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)
Started
Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC
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In recent months, Israel and Saudi Arabia had been in talks to discuss a normalization agreement between the two countries (USIP). Following the outbreak of Israel’s war with Hamas, Saudi Arabia halted these conversations (France 24, Reuters). However, U.S. president Joe Biden believes that a normalization deal is still possible and says that Hamas may have attacked Israel to prevent Saudi Arabia from recognizing Israel (CBS News, Reuters).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using credible open source reports. For this question to be resolved as “Yes,” both Israeli and Saudi officials must publicly acknowledge that they are resuming normalization talks. If Israel and Saudi Arabia acknowledge that talks have resumed on different dates, this question will be resolved using the date of the second country's statement.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
This question is a resolved time period from Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | |
| No | 95% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 66 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 142 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
