Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024)
Started
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC
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Most civil nuclear reactors use 3-5% enriched uranium, and the 2015 Iran nuclear deal limited Iran’s enrichment to 3.67% (Nuclear Threat Initiative, NPR). However, in 2019 Iran began breaching multiple limits set by the deal, including the limit on uranium enrichment (Arms Control Association).
As of 19 August 2023, Iran has an estimated total of 657.4 kg of uranium enriched above 5% U-235 (535.8 kg of uranium enriched up to 20% and 121.6 kg of uranium enriched up to 60%), according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA GOV/2023/39).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using open source news media reports. For this question to be resolved as “Yes”, Iran must agree to only produce uranium enriched up to 5% or less or the IAEA must confirm that it has eliminated its stockpile of uranium enriched above 5%. This could be done as part of a return to the JCPOA, a new international agreement, or as a unilateral announcement by the Iranian government. Reports of secret or unconfirmed agreements will not count towards resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
This question is a resolved time period from Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.23% | |
| No | 99.77% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 90 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 388 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
