What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Started
Oct 1, 2024 12:00PM
Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM (in 5 months)
Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM (in 5 months)
Seasons
The Munich Security Index (MSI) is a tool for assessing global risk perceptions, developed through a collaboration between the Munich Security Conference and Kekst CNC. The index surveys around 12,000 individuals across G7 and BRICS nations (excluding Russia but including Ukraine) to assess how people in each country perceive the risk posed by a variety of threats, such as climate change, mass migration, and nuclear weapons.
Respondents are also asked about the risk posed by other countries to their own. These scores run from a potential -100 (if 100 percent of a population said that x was a threat) to +100 (if 100 percent of a population said that x was an ally). Surveys are conducted from October to November each year, and the index is released in February of the following year.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using data from the Munich Security Report expected to be published in February 2026. In the 2024 report, Germans' net perception of Ukraine was 27, meaning that 27% more of respondents thought that Ukraine was an ally rather than a threat (MSI 2024, pg. 21). This is a drop of 5 percentage points from the previous year (MSI 2023, pg. 19). A chart showing Germany’s net perception of Ukraine from previous report years is below:
Note that report years show polling from October to November of the prior year. For example, the index score for report year 2022 reflects polling conducted in late 2021.
Drag the possible answers to the probability you think each has of occurring. The probability allocated must sum to 100%.