What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Started
Oct 1, 2024 12:00PM
Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM (in 5 months)
Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM (in 5 months)
Seasons
The Munich Security Index (MSI) is a tool for assessing global risk perceptions, developed through a collaboration between the Munich Security Conference and Kekst CNC. The index surveys around 12,000 individuals across G7 and BRICS nations (excluding Russia but including Ukraine) to assess how people in each country perceive the risk posed by a variety of threats, such as climate change, mass migration, and nuclear weapons. It combines five metrics (overall risk, expected trajectory, severity of potential damage, perceived imminence, and feelings of preparedness) and scales the survey results to create a 0 to 100 risk index.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using data from the Munich Security Report expected to be published in February 2026. In the 2024 report, the index score for the perceived risk posed by Russia to Germany was 67, a drop of 11 index points compared to the previous year (MSI 2024, pg 12). A chart showing Germany’s Russia Risk Index score for previous report years is below:
Note that report years show polling from October to November of the prior year. For example, the index score for report year 2022 reflects polling conducted in late 2021.
Drag the possible answers to the probability you think each has of occurring. The probability allocated must sum to 100%.