In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Started
Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Forecast Window 18 months
Forecast Window 18 months
While most cyber attacks result in digital effects like data theft, some hackers have successfully created kinetic effects via cyber attacks, such as the 2022 attack on Iran which caused buildings to burst into flames (BBC).
In September 2024, numerous NATO members signed a joint cybersecurity advisory noting Russian cyber attacks on Ukraine and NATO members, focused on disrupting aid to Ukraine, though these attacks did not have kinetic effects (BBC).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as "Yes" if a NATO government, cyber security researchers, or other reputable sources report that a NATO member country has been affected by a Russian government cyber attack on energy or transportation infrastructure that resulted in kinetic effects.
For the purpose of resolution, attackers must be directly affiliated with or operating on explicit behalf of the Russian government, including Russian military or intelligence services, as well as groups or individuals operating on behalf of the Russian government.
Examples of “kinetic” effects include, but are not limited to, damage to equipment, shutdowns or other impacts to power grids, fires, human injury or death, and other physical destruction as a direct result of the cyber attack. A cyber attack combined with a standard kinetic attack would only count if physical damage, injury, or death was a direct result of the cyber attack itself.
Energy and transportation infrastructure include, but are not limited to, power plants and transmission grids, rail systems, and airports. Cyber attacks on military infrastructure will not count towards resolution unless the target of the attack serves a dual military-civilian use.