Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Started
Oct 22, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photolithography is a semiconductor manufacturing process that uses ultraviolet light with a very short wavelength (close to that of an X-ray) to print circuit patterns onto silicon wafers (Investopedia). EUV lithography machines use high-powered lasers to hit 25-micron-wide tin droplets with precision, turning them into plasma that emits EUV light at wavelengths of 13.5 nm (Semiconductor Engineering). The extremely short wavelengths of EUV light enables EUV lithography machines to create patterns that are at least three times smaller than previous lithography techniques (IBM).
EUV photolithography is one of the most complex and expensive semiconductor manufacturing technologies ever developed, but it provides a dramatic increase in precision that creates new opportunities to advance chip design and computing performance (Girolino, Semiconductor Engineering). In contrast to deep ultraviolet photolithography (DUV), EUV photolithography systems have much stricter requirements and consequently are much more difficult to produce (Robots Ops). Because EUV light is absorbed by most materials (including air), the optical components of current EUV systems are highly specialized mirrors that must be used in a vacuum, while DUV systems can use a combination of lenses and mirrors and do not require a vacuum. Additionally, EUV systems use high-powered lasers to generate plasma from tin droplets, which produce the EUV radiation, which is a more complex process than the excimer lasers used by DUV systems.
Currently, ASML is the only company that makes EUV photolithography machines capable of high-volume manufacturing, having invested more than €6 billion over 17 years on research and development (IBM, ASML). Export controls prohibit ASML from selling EUV machines to China, so China has made efforts to develop their own—Chinese firms SMEE and Huawei have recently filed patents for EUV equipment—but they still have yet to develop any HVM-capable EUV machines (SCMP, Tom's Hardware). There have been reports that researchers from Tsinghua University are developing a “lithographic cannon” that uses steady-state microbunching technology instead of tin-droplet laser technology to produce EUV light (Asia Times). However, its effectiveness and feasibility for use in semiconductor fabrication facilities remain to be seen.
Resolution Criteria:
This is an unscored question and will close for forecasting on 30 November 2024. If the question resolves before 30 November, participants will still not receive a score. Although this is an unscored question, we outline the theoretical resolution criteria here.
This question would resolve based on credible open-source news, industry reports, or announcements by companies involved in the manufacture, sale, or purchase of the EUV photolithography machines.
To count towards resolution, the EUV photolithography machines must be produced by an organization based in China and be capable of high-volume manufacturing, which for the purposes of this question means that its throughput (i.e., how quickly it can process semiconductor wafers) must be at least 90 wafers per hour, which is roughly 50% capability of ASML's latest EUV model, the TWINSCAN EXE: 5000. Organizations that are not based in China but have subsidiary operations in China will not count unless the machines are produced and sold primarily through its Chinese subsidiary. Machines that are only used for research, prototype development, or demonstration purposes will not count.
Question clarification
Issued on 10/30/24 08:08pm
The resolution criteria has been updated to note that the 90 wafer per hour threshold is roughly half of the throughput of ASML's latest EUV model, the TWINSCAN EXE: 5000. This does not change how the question would resolve.
The resolution criteria has been updated to note that the 90 wafer per hour threshold is roughly half of the throughput of ASML's latest EUV model, the TWINSCAN EXE: 5000. This does not change how the question would resolve.