Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Started
Oct 22, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
During semiconductor chip manufacturing, ultra-pure silicon wafers undergo a series of highly precise steps to form billions of microscopic transistors with atomic-level precision. Photolithography is arguably one of the most critical parts of the process, as it creates the nanoscale circuit patterns that define the transistor structures built in later stages. Current ArFi DUV (argon fluoride immersion) systems use argon fluoride excimer lasers to produce 193 nm ultraviolet light, enabling higher resolutions <40nm, which is then used to transfer the circuit patterns onto the silicon wafers (Zeiss, Girolino).
Producing DUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing is a significant technical challenge because the complex machinery demands high levels of precision, accuracy, and reliability (Jamestown Foundation). Very few companies, like Canon, Nikon, and ASML, have been able to develop commercially viable machines, and while U.S. export controls have prompted China to accelerate its efforts to develop them domestically, they still lag behind the more established players (Tom's Hardware, Asia Times).
Resolution Criteria:
This is an unscored question and will close for forecasting on 30 November 2024. If the question resolves before 30 November, participants will still not receive a score. Although this is an unscored question, we outline the theoretical resolution criteria here.
This question would resolve based on credible open-source news, industry reports, or announcements by companies involved in the manufacture, sale, or purchase of the DUV photolithography machines.
To count towards resolution, the DUV photolithography machines must be produced by an organization based in China and be capable of high-volume manufacturing, which for the purposes of this question means that its throughput (i.e., how quickly it can process semiconductor wafers) must be at least 140 wafers per hour, which is roughly 50% capability of ASML's latest DUV model, the TWINSCAN NXT:2100i. Organizations that are not based in China but have subsidiary operations in China will not count unless the machines are produced and sold primarily through its Chinese subsidiary. Machines that are only used for research, prototype development, or demonstration purposes would not count.
Question clarification
Issued on 10/30/24 08:08pm
The resolution criteria has been updated to note that the 140 wafer per hour threshold is roughly half of the throughput of ASML's latest DUV model, the TWINSCAN NXT:2100i. This does not change how the question would resolve.
The resolution criteria has been updated to note that the 140 wafer per hour threshold is roughly half of the throughput of ASML's latest DUV model, the TWINSCAN NXT:2100i. This does not change how the question would resolve.