Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and May 2, 2024)
Started
Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed May 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed May 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
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In 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco signed agreements establishing diplomatic relations with Israel (Foreign Policy, Brookings, Al Jazeera). Recent conversations suggested that others, including Saudi Arabia, may soon join them (New York Times), but discussions paused after war broke out between Israel and Hamas (France 24).
Examples of agreements that have established diplomatic relations include the peace treaties Israel signed with Egypt and Jordan, as well as the normalization agreements that Israel signed with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco as part of the Abraham Accords.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve “Yes” if any of the following countries sign an agreement with Israel establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations:
- Afghanistan
- Algeria
- Bangladesh
- Brunei
- Comoros
- Djibouti
- Indonesia
- Iran
- Iraq
- Kuwait
- Lebanon
- Libya
- Malaysia
- Maldives
- Mali
- Niger
- Oman
- Qatar
- Saudi Arabia
- Sudan
- Somalia
- Syria
- Tunisia
- Yemen
Note that a previous version of this question excluded Sudan from this list, and there was a separate question on the probability of Sudan and Israel signing a normalization agreement. Sudan is now included in the list of countries for this question, so Sudan and Israel signing a normalization agreement will count for resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
This question is a resolved time period from Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
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| Possible Answer | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|
| Yes | 0% |
| No | 0% |